THE PROBLEM
SUMMARY
We (humans) are destroying the Earth. By destroying habitats and polluting the environment. Really we all know this! As Global Heating and Climate Change produce disasters all over the World.
As more and more of the land is covered in concrete. As more and more air, land and sea are polluted with our waste. The eco-systems we need to sustain us are breaking down. The human population is growing and growing putting ever more strain on the Earth.
HOW WE HAVE GOT HERE
Scientists have been warning us of this for 50 years. The first scientists who sounded the alarm were concerned about Global Warming. They were out on a limb. But as the evidence mounted, the majority have come to recognise the concern. Then it was over to the politicians.
They too could not ignore the evidence that we face a serious problem though one which they did not want to have to deal with.
Eventually, they set up a body the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a body of scientists and politicians) to provide advice to governments on what we need to do to combat the problem. However, the reality is that governments do not like taking drastic action and changing the direction of society so the politicians on the IPCC have tended to soften its advice.
All scientific advice and predictions have an element of uncertainty and there are always views that oppose the established view. So these provided excuses for those who did not want to take action. Despite this, the IPCC advice has got stronger and more definite.
Right from the start the scientific advice has been that it would be very dangerous if global heating went beyond 1.5degC. (N.B. not that 1.5 degC was safe, but that beyond 1.5degC was very dangerous).
Now the IPCC say that there is very little chance of keeping heating below this value. Originally (22 years ago) the scientific advice was that we should IMMEDIATELY set out to cut Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions to HALF their 2001 value in 50 years.
Instead, GHGs have INCREASED every year including this year.
TV programs make us aware that:
1. Climate Change produces disasters all over the World: hurricanes, heat waves, forest fires, floods and droughts.
2. More and more of the land is covered in concrete, as towns expand.
3. More and more air, land and sea are polluted with our waste – greenhouse gasses - plastic waste – sewage and run off from farming into our rivers.
4. The human population is growing and growing putting ever more strain on the Earth.
Not surprisingly, we are now in trouble.
EARTH
But we ignore it and just carry on as if everything was OK.
It is NOT.
A REALITY CHECK
“Everything is OK” ignores the reality that we live on a finite planet, and excessive consumption is now destroying our planet.
Let us unpick that statement.
In order to produce the goods which we consume, it is necessary to supply the industrial monster with raw materials from which to produce the goods. Many of the materials needed to produce the goods we consume are finite - there are only limited amounts of them present on the Earth – fossil fuels, mineral ores, rare earths. These substances exist in finite amounts, some are very rare, whereas others are abundant. As we use them up, we have to find replacements - if we can.
The most obvious of these limited resources are those we require to produce energy (always needed to power production and consumption). For most of human existence this was provided by manual and animal effort but since the 18th century, and still currently, this is mainly provided by the fossil fuels. Once the coal, oil and gas are gone there will be no more. But the real constraint is that the climate scientists are telling us that we if we burn any more Global Heating will go out of control and therefore we should leave fossil fuels in the ground. We can, and are, producing some energy from renewable resources, but there are many problems along the way. There are also quite limited supplies of the rare earths – used for making electronic devices, radio-active elements and precious metals.
The other source of materials for the making of goods are the renewable resources. Ultimately, of course, all renewable resources rely on energy from the Sun, which is responsible for warmth, winds, trees and crops (tides are mainly the responsibility of the Moon, though the Sun plays some part). Even more ultimately, the Sun itself is a limited resource. It will burn out eventually, though not for some 5 billion years, so we are justified in not worrying about that!
Renewable resources are those that replenish themselves after being used. Thus crops can be harvested and then they can be re-planted, or just re-grown from existing roots, and another crop grows mainly under the action of sunlight and water(rain).
So to produce the goods we consume, we have to supply either
non-renewable or renewable raw materials. As the non-renewable resources get used up we have to find alternatives, from either alternative non-renewables or from renewable resources
WASTE
The production of consumable goods produces waste. Plastic in our oceans and on land, pollution of our rivers, slag heaps, radio-active waste, greenhouse gases in our air, the list is endless. This waste and pollution can be cleaned up by the Earth's eco-systems, some quite quickly, but some only after thousands of years. The Earth's systems can only cope with a limited rate of production of waste.
SO WHERE ARE WE
Scientists tell us that to prevent run away climate change, we should burn no more fossil fuels. We are also consuming the Earth's other non-renewable resources at an alarming rate. We are also consuming the Earth's renewable resources at a rate which is too great for the renewable process to be able to replace them. Thus, we are over-fishing so that fish stocks are dwindling. We are consuming hardwoods at a rate beyond the replacement rate. Our destruction of habitats means that species are being wiped out, at a rate comparable to the major mass extinctions.
We are producing waste and pollution at a rate beyond that which the Earth's eco-systems can clean up. Most notably, but by no means the only example, we are producing green house gases beyond the rate at which the Earth can remove them – leading to global heating and climate change, with potentially disastrous consequences.
In summary, our production and consumption of goods is at a rate which is causing the Earth systems to fail. There are too many of us, consuming too much and we are destroying the Earth. We are polluting the natural environment at a rate greater than the environment can clean up.
HOW BAD IS IT
Obviously, people's consumption of goods varies enormously. Billionaires with several huge houses, private jets, sumptuous yachts, helicopters and cars, their exotic food, etc. have a much larger consumption than a South American subsistence farmer.
Scientists can calculate what the Earth's systems can provide and compare this with what the world's population currently consumes. For the existing mixed population of rich and poor this calculation leads to the following:
For the existing population we already need 1.7 planet Earths to support us. If all consumed at the rate of the USA we would need 4 planet Earths. Another way of expressing this alarming situation is to calculate at what date in the year we have loaded the Earth's systems with what they are capable of coping. Currently information can be found as “Overshoot day”.
In 1973 Overshoot day was about November 14th. It has grown rapidly so that now Earth Overshoot Day in 2023 was August 2nd
From Overshoot Day onwards we have exhausted the ability of our single Earth to sustain us.
The Destruction of the Earth
Has Now Reached Crisis Point